Analysis of LA Times Meg Whitman Jerry Brown Poll

Just like their poll earlier this fall, today's Los Angeles Times poll, conducted by a Democrat polling firm, assumes a completely irrational turnout mix. Additionally, it's aged. That's fine for cheese and wine, but not polls.

The Times poll obliterates the model from the last mid-term election and skews significantly toward a Democrat wave-like '08 turnout model. Specifically, The Times is assuming a +5% Democrat tilt over the '06 mid-term turnout. Obviously any rational observer and pollster would find that ignorant of what is occurring with the electorate.

Additionally, The Times poll was in the field from 10/13-18; before a discernable Whitman uptick in other polls. In other words, it's old, statistically flawed, and in no way a current snapshot of the race.

"Statistically, given the clear average of multiple public and private polls fielded in a similar time frame, The LA Times poll should be categorized as an outlier poll and can be dismissed as simply inaccurate," said Whitman pollster John McLaughlin. Dr. David Hill, also a Whitman campaign pollster, agreed with that assessment.

We are certain this race is extremely close, and we are confident of our position to close this campaign with a historic result a week from Tuesday that will give California its first woman governor.

TEXT and IMAGE CREDIT: Meg Whitman For Governor 2010