 | October 19, 2010 - Kasich Holds Off Strickland In Ohio Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Independent Voters Back Republican Almost 2-1 Republican John Kasich remains in command of the Ohio governor's race with a 51 - 41 percent likely voter lead |
Kasich's lead is built on a 59 - 32 percent margin among independent likely voters, and a 64 - 29 percent spread among white evangelical Christians, according to the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey conducted by live interviewers.
President Barack Obama remains unpopular among Ohio voters who disapprove 56 - 40 percent of the job he is doing and say 32 - 9 percent they are less likely rather than more likely to vote for Strickland because the President is campaigning for the governor. Independent voters say 35 - 4 percent that Obama's campaigning makes them less likely to vote for Strickland.
"John Kasich's lead has remained the same and the sand is slipping through the hour glass. If Gov. Ted Strickland is going to turn this election around, he needs to do it quickly," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But the obvious question is, 'What can Strickland do in the two weeks before Election Day that he has been unable to do so far?'"
Women voters split with 46 percent for Kasich and 45 percent for Strickland. But Kasich leads 55 - 37 percent among men. Kasich leads among Republicans 91 - 5 percent while Democrats back Strickland 84 - 7 percent.
"Although it is hypothetically possible, it's difficult to see how anyone can win a statewide election when they are getting beat so badly among independents. The race may be a dead heat among women, but it is a landslide among men," said Brown. "President Barack Obama's 63 percent disapproval rating among independent voters is an extremely heavy anchor around Ted Strickland's neck."
Not only is Kasich ahead, but only 8 percent of his supporters say they might change their minds, compared to 12 percent of Strickland's backers.
Strickland is viewed favorably by 43 percent of likely voters, including just 34 percent of independents, and unfavorably by 47 percent. Those numbers are better for the governor, however, than his job approval rating, which shows voters giving him a 54 - 39 percent thumbs down.
Kasich, a former congressman, gets a favorable opinion rating from 47 percent, with an unfavorable score of 33 percent.
"The economy is the defining issue in the race for governor. Strickland holds an overwhelming 89 - 6 percent lead among the likely voters who think the economy is improving, but they make up only 19 percent of the electorate. Kasich dominates the 36 percent who think the economy is getting worse 76 - 13 percent. The 45 percent of voters who think the economy is staying the same back Kasich 50 - 43 percent," said Brown.
Kasich's lead in the horse race is backed up by his 52 - 38 percent lead as the candidate best able to turn around the Ohio economy and his 48 - 40 percent lead as the candidate who most shares voters' values.
"Anything is possible in politics, but if Gov. Strickland is able to pull out a victory it will take the kind of final drive that makes history," said Brown.
From October 12 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,188 Ohio likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Strickland or Kasich? (This table includes Leaners)
TEXT CREDIT: Quinnipiac University • 275 Mount Carmel Ave. • Hamden, CT 06518-1908 • 203-582-8200
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Strickland 41% 5% 84% 32% 37% 45% 29%
Kasich 51 91 7 59 55 46 64
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - -
DK/NA 7 4 7 8 6 7 6
RATING ECONOMY Q19
Better Worse Same
Strickland 89% 13% 43%
Kasich 6 76 50
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - -
DK/NA 5 9 6
TREND: If the election for governor were being held today and the candidates were
Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote?
(If undecided q1) If you had to choose today, would you vote for
Strickland or Kasich? (This table includes Leaners)
LIKELY VOTERS.........
Oct 19 Oct 5 Sep 16
2010 2010 2010
Strickland 41 41 37
Kasich 51 50 54
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - -
DK/NA 7 7 7
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before
the election?
LIKELY...............
CAND CHOICE Q1
Tot TS JK
Made up 90% 88% 92%
Might change 10 12 8
DK/NA - - -
2. Is your opinion of - Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you
heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Favorable 43% 12% 81% 34% 42% 44% 31%
Unfavorable 47 77 11 55 51 42 62
Hvn't hrd enough 7 7 6 7 4 11 5
REFUSED 3 3 2 3 2 4 2
TREND: Is your opinion of - Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't
you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.........
Oct 19 Oct 5 Sep 16
2010 2010 2010
Favorable 43 41 36
Unfavorable 47 47 52
Hvn't hrd enough 7 7 9
REFUSED 3 4 3
3. Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard
enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Favorable 47% 83% 10% 53% 51% 42% 58%
Unfavorable 33 5 65 27 31 35 23
Hvn't hrd enough 17 11 22 18 14 21 16
REFUSED 3 2 3 2 3 2 3
TREND: Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't
you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.........
Oct 19 Oct 5 Sep 16
2010 2010 2010
Favorable 47 46 47
Unfavorable 33 30 27
Hvn't hrd enough 17 21 24
REFUSED 3 2 2
12. Turning back to the race for Governor between Ted Strickland and John Kasich;
regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values,
Ted Strickland or John Kasich?
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Strickland 40% 6% 81% 34% 39% 42% 27%
Kasich 48 88 6 54 53 44 63
NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 3 2 1 3 2 4 2
DK/NA 8 5 11 9 6 11 8
13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better
job rebuilding Ohio's economy, Ted Strickland or John Kasich?
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Strickland 38% 4% 81% 30% 38% 39% 25%
Kasich 52 89 10 60 56 48 66
NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 3 2 2 2 1 4 2
DK/NA 7 4 7 8 5 9 8
14. When Barack Obama campaigns for Ted Strickland does that make you more
likely to vote for Strickland, less likely to vote for Strickland, or doesn't
it make a difference?
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
More likely 9% - 23% 4% 8% 10% 5%
Less likely 32 59 5 35 34 30 43
Doesn't make diff 58 40 72 61 57 59 52
DK/NA 1 - 1 1 - 1 1
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his
job as Governor?
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Approve 39% 9% 82% 28% 38% 41% 26%
Disapprove 54 87 13 64 58 50 69
DK/NA 6 4 5 8 3 10 5
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his
job as President?
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Approve 40% 3% 85% 33% 39% 43% 26%
Disapprove 56 96 12 63 59 53 72
DK/NA 3 1 3 5 2 4 2
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the economy?
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Approve 36% 6% 75% 28% 35% 38% 22%
Disapprove 57 91 18 64 61 53 72
DK/NA 6 3 7 7 4 9 6
18. Would you describe the state of Ohio's economy these days as excellent,
good, not so good, or poor?
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Excellent - - - 1% 1% - -
Good 9 2 16 9 9 9 5
Not so good 45 37 58 41 45 45 40
Poor 45 61 25 48 45 45 54
DK/NA 1 - 1 1 1 - 1
19. Do you think Ohio's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying
about the same?
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Better 19% 3% 37% 16% 18% 20% 13%
Worse 36 53 15 38 33 39 38
The same 45 43 48 45 48 40 47
DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
IMAGE CREDIT: John Kasich for Governor of Ohio
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