Bush, Kerry in Michigan Dead Heat; Proposals 04-1 and 04-2 Both Look Like Winners

LANSING, Mich., Sept. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- An already tight race forMichigan's 17 electoral votes between President George W. Bush and U.S.Senator John Kerry, the Democratic nominee, just got tighter. Kerry leads Bush by only two percentage points, his smallest edge in three months, and it appears the number of undecided voters may be expanding slightly.

Kerry is ahead of Bush, 45%-43%, with only 1% for Ralph Nader. About 11%of the state's voters claim to be undecided, refused to answer whom they will vote for, or say they don't know (U/RtA/DK).

Those are the conclusions of a statewide survey commissioned by InsideMichigan Politics and conducted by Lansing-based Marketing Resource Group,Inc., between Sept. 20 and 24. The poll sampled 600 registered votersstratified by city and/or township, based on past voting history. 36% of therespondents are behavioral Democrats; 30% behavioral Republicans; 27% are ticket-splitters; and about 7% refused to characterize their voting habits orhad never voted before. Statistical margin of error is + or - 4.1%.

MRG is the state's oldest and most reliable polling organization onMichigan issues and political races. Inside Michigan Politics, founded in1987, is the largest-circulation bi-weekly, state-based political newsletterin North America.

The race between Kerry and Bush in Michigan has closed within the past 10days, headed into the candidates' first debate in Coral Gables, FL, thisThursday evening. Six weeks ago, Kerry boasted his biggest Michigan lead,49%-42%, in the wake of the Democratic National Convention. Now, however, IMP/MRG and another survey taken by Fox News on Sept. 21-22 shows the race has tightened to a virtual draw.

The survey also found that Michigan voters support both proposals thatwill be on the Nov. 2 general election ballot: 04-1, which would require thatany new form of gambling in Michigan must be subject to approval by voterslocally as well as statewide; and 04-2, which would effectively ban so-called"gay marriage" in the state.

Voters favor Prop 04-1, 63%-27%, with about 10% U/RtA/DK; voters supportProp 04-2, 61%-33% (6% U/RtA/DK), which is an even greater margin than IMP/MRGfound when essentially the same question was asked six months ago.

SOURCE Inside Michigan Politics
Web Site: http://www.insidemichiganpolitics.com/