Hurricane EMILY Public Advisory 07/16/05 5PM

000, WTNT35 KNHC 162045, TCPAT5, BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL, REAL TIME LOOP 5 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

Satellite Services Division REAL TIME LOOP 1 EMILY and REAL TIME LOOP 2 EMILY

...CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR EMILY PASSING SOUTH OF WESTERN JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO PROGRESO. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PROGRESSO...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE ISLAS MUJERES.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS EVENING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...210 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA AND ABOUT 235 MILES... 375 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF WESTERN JAMAICA THIS EVENING AND NEAR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES EMILY A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE AT TIMES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM. FOR JAMAICA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR IN GUSTS IN RAINBANDS ALONG THE COASTS...WITH POSSIBLE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH SOME 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINS WILL BE INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON SUNDAY WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE...AND LOCAL MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 937 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

Source: NOAA FORECASTER BEVEN $$

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