Hurricane EMILY Public Advisory 07/19/05 1PM

more at Tropical Storm EMILY or noaa and EMILY or Hurricane DENNIS

000 WTNT35 KNHC 191653 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE EMILY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER REAL TIME LOOP MIAMI FL NOON CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

Satellite Services Division REAL TIME LOOP 1 EMILY and REAL TIME LOOP 2 EMILY

...EMILY STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND FAR SOUTH TEXAS COASTS......EMILY EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT NOON CDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST OR ABOUT 185 MILES... 300 KM... NORTH OF DUE EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

EMILY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED TONIGHT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 95 MPH...155 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS CURRENTLY A STRONG CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND EMILY IS COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND A MAJOR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM. DURING PAST HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42002 LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF EMILY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 63 MPH. OUTER RAINBANDS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ONSHORE THE COASTS OF FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE NOON CDT POSITION...24.0 N... 94.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 95 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

Source: NOAA FORECASTER STEWART $$