October 5, 2010 - Strickland Gains Ground, But Trails In Ohio Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Incumbent Hurt By Grim Voter Outlook On Economy
Republican John Kasich holds a 50 - 41 percent lead over Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland among likely voters in the race for Ohio governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This is down from a 54 - 37 percent Kasich lead September 16.
President Barack Obama's trips to Ohio to campaign for Democrats have not been helpful in attracting voters to Gov. Strickland, as only 14 percent of likely voters overall and just 6 percent of independent voters say the president's visits make them more likely to vote for the Democrat, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey finds. In all, 33 percent of likely voters and 39 percent of independent likely voters say an Obama visit made it less likely they would vote for Strickland.
The two candidates are holding onto their party faithful, with Kasich getting 88 percent of Republicans and Strickland getting 86 percent of Democrats. But Kasich's 62 - 29 percent lead among independent voters is responsible for his overall lead. Among the likely electorate, Strickland is viewed unfavorably by 47 percent and favorably by 41 percent, while Kasich is viewed favorably by 46 percent and unfavorably by 30 percent.
Only 14 percent of likely voters think Ohio's economy is getting better, while 45 percent think it is getting worse and 40 percent think it is staying the same. Strickland leads 88 - 3 percent among those who think the economy is getting better and 55 - 38 percent among those who think it is the same, but Kasich leads 76 - 13 percent among those who think it is getting worse.
"Whether his fault or not, the pessimistic public mood about the economy is a problem for Gov. Ted Strickland and a plus for John Kasich," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"The governor's race has tightened but Kasich still has a healthy lead with four weeks until Election Day. If Gov. Strickland is to mount a comeback, he needs to make a major dent in Kasich's commanding lead among independent voters, who often make the difference in close elections in Ohio," Brown added.
"Not only does Strickland have to take all the undecided voters, he needs to peel away some of the soft Kasich voters as well if he is to win," said Brown. "Among likely voters, President Barack Obama is a negative for Gov. Strickland. Ohio likely voters disapprove 57 - 39 percent of the job President Obama is doing. If Obama had a 57 - 39 percent positive job approval instead, Strickland would have a lot better chance of winning re-election."
By 53 - 40 percent, likely voters disapprove of the job Strickland is doing in his first term as governor and disapprove of his handling of the economy 58 - 35 percent.
Asked what qualities are most important in a candidate for governor, only 11 percent say the "right experience" - presumably a quality they would ascribe to the incumbent. More than twice as many voters, 27 percent, say they want someone to bring change to Columbus. Another 25 percent cite honesty as the most important quality in a candidate and 33 percent want a candidate who shares their values.
"There clearly is an anti-incumbent mood in the country and in Ohio as well. That certainly doesn't help Strickland. In most years, experience in office is a major plus with voters. But not necessarily this year."
By 49 - 40 percent, likely voters say Kasich rather than Strickland most shares their values, and by 51 - 39 percent they think the Republican would do a better job than the Democrat in rebuilding the state's economy.
"Four weeks is a lifetime in political campaigns, but the governor needs to seize the momentum soon if he is to win a second term," said Brown.
From September 29 - October 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,025 Ohio likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Strickland or Kasich? (This table includes Leaners and early voters)
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Strickland 41% 6% 86% 29% 34% 48% 27%
Kasich 50 88 7 62 57 44 65
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 3 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - -
DK/NA 7 5 5 9 7 8 7
ANGRY WITH RATING ECONOMY Q21
StateGvQ23 Better Worse Same
Strickland 14% 88% 13% 55%
Kasich 75 3 76 38
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 6 1 3 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - -
DK/NA 5 7 8 5
TREND: If the election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Ted Strickland the Democrat and John Kasich the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Strickland or Kasich? This table includes Leaners.
LIKELY VOTERS..
Oct 5 Sep 161a. (If candidate choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
2010 2010
Strickland 41% 37%
Kasich 50 54
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - -
DK/NA 7 7
LIKELY...............2. Is your opinion of - Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
CAND CHOICE Q1
Tot TS JK
Made up 89% 87% 91%
Might change 9 11 8
DK/NA 1 2 -
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............
WtBrnAgnTREND: Is your opinion of - Ted Strickland favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Favorable 41% 12% 81% 30% 37% 46% 30%
Unfavorable 47 75 11 58 53 42 59
Hvn't hrd enough 7 6 6 7 6 8 8
REFUSED 4 7 1 5 5 4 3
LIKELY VOTERS..3. Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
Oct 5 Sep 16
2010 2010
Favorable 41% 36%
Unfavorable 47 52
Hvn't hrd enough 7 9
REFUSED 4 3
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............TREND: Is your opinion of - John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Favorable 46% 85% 10% 51% 51% 41% 63%
Unfavorable 30 4 57 25 28 33 22
Hvn't hrd enough 21 9 31 22 19 23 14
REFUSED 2 2 1 3 1 3 1
LIKELY VOTERS..13. Turning back to the race for Governor between Ted Strickland and John Kasich; Which one of these four qualities matter most in deciding how you vote for governor - The candidate is honest and trustworthy, has the right experience, can bring about needed change to Columbus or shares your values?
Oct 5 Sep 16
2010 2010
Favorable 46% 47%
Unfavorable 30 27
Hvn't hrd enough 21 24
REFUSED 2 2
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you believe most shares your values Ted Strickland or John Kasich?
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Honest 25% 16% 30% 28% 22% 28% 26%
Right experience 11 6 15 12 10 13 9
Brings change to
Columbus 27 37 15 30 27 26 27
Shares values 33 37 36 27 36 29 34
DK/NA 5 4 5 2 5 4 4
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job rebuilding Ohio's economy Ted Strickland or John Kasich?
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Strickland 40% 8% 80% 30% 34% 46% 30%
Kasich 49 86 6 60 56 42 61
NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 3 1 3 2 2 3 2
DK/NA 9 5 10 8 9 9 7
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............16. When Barack Obama campaigns for Ted Strickland does that make you more likely to vote for Strickland, less likely to vote for Strickland, or doesn’t it make a difference?
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Strickland 39% 8% 81% 28% 33% 45% 30%
Kasich 51 86 7 63 59 42 62
NO DIFFERENCE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 1 2 2
DK/NA 9 5 11 7 7 11 7
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling his job as Governor?
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
More likely 14% 1% 34% 6% 14% 14% 12%
Less likely 33 54 7 39 37 29 40
Doesn't make diff 52 45 57 54 49 55 47
DK/NA 1 - 2 1 - 2 2
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Approve 40% 10% 79% 32% 33% 47% 31%
Disapprove 53 85 14 63 61 45 63
DK/NA 7 6 7 5 6 8 7
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Strickland is handling the economy?
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Approve 39% 5% 82% 28% 36% 44% 24%
Disapprove 57 93 13 66 63 50 73
DK/NA 4 1 5 5 2 6 3
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............21. Do you think Ohio's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Approve 35% 7% 74% 23% 31% 39% 25%
Disapprove 58 85 17 73 63 54 66
DK/NA 7 8 9 4 6 7 8
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............23. I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the state government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Better 14% 4% 31% 6% 13% 15% 12%
Worse 45 64 18 52 47 42 55
The same 40 31 49 41 39 41 33
DK/NA 2 1 2 2 2 2 -
LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Early Voters)..............TEXT CREDIT: Quinnipiac University • 275 Mount Carmel Ave. • Hamden, CT 06518-1908 • 203-582-8200
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Enthusiastic, 2% - 5% 0% 0% 3% 3%
Sat/Not enthusiastic 27 11 54 18 24 31 21
Dis/Not angry 52 63 35 59 55 48 55
Angry 18 25 6 21 19 16 20
DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 1 -
