Scott Leads In Florida Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Obama Approval 16 Points In The Hole.
Republican Rick Scott holds a 49 - 43 percent lead over State Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, the Democrat, in the race to become Florida's next governor, according to today's Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters whose overall low opinion of President Barack Obama appears to be dragging Sink down.
Scott's lead comes despite a television advertising campaign that voters say they find annoying, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds. This first likely voter general election survey in Florida in this election cycle can not be compared with prior surveys of registered voters.
Although Scott holds a 6-point lead in the horse race, the candidates have almost identical favorability ratings from Florida likely voters: 39 - 39 percent for Sink and 41 - 40 percent for Scott.
Florida likely voters disapprove 56 - 40 percent of the job President Obama is doing. Democrats approve 83 - 15 percent, while disapproval is 92 - 6 percent among Republicans and 56 - 38 percent among independent voters.
"Rick Scott's millions in TV advertising may annoy voters, but it won him the Republican nomination and is pushing him to a 6-point general election lead," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
"It's no surprise that Scott's campaigning and advertising has been trying to tie State CFO Alex Sink to President Barack Obama. The president's low ratings, especially among independents who are likely to decide the governor's race, are a problem for Ms. Sink's campaign."
"It's a fair bet that if the president had a 56 - 40 percent approval rating, instead of the opposite, Sink probably would be ahead," Brown added.
Although Sink could become Florida's first female governor, there is only a small gender gap in the matchup: Women support Scott 47 - 43 percent while men back him 50 - 42 percent.
Only 14 percent of likely voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind, including 16 percent of Sink backers and 13 percent of Scott supporters.
"There aren't very many undecided voters and relatively few who say they might switch their allegiance, which means this race is likely to be close until Election Day," said Brown. "Whichever side does the best job getting its people to the polls is likely to be the winner."
Scott's edge in the horse race may be tied to the public perception that he would be better able to rebuild the state's economy, 48 - 39 percent, than can Ms. Sink. On rebuilding the economy, Scott enjoys a 48 - 34 percent lead among independent voters.
Scott, a former health care executive, was a political unknown until last spring when he began the biggest television advertising campaign in Florida political history.
Among likely voters, 89 percent said they had seen Scott's TV ads and 54 percent of that group call the ads annoying, while 40 percent say they are informative. But 43 percent of likely voters say Scott's campaign advertising is "the right amount" while 38 percent call it "excessive," and 11 percent say "not enough."
Almost as many likely voters, 87 percent, have seen Sink's commercials. This group splits 47 - 46 percent on whether the ads are informative or annoying. More than half, 51 percent, say the Sink ad spending is "about right," while 17 percent call it "excessive" and 21 percent say it's "not enough."
From September 23 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,151 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.
1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Alex Sink the Democrat and Rick Scott the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Sink or Scott? (This table includes Leaners).
LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Sink 43% 8% 87% 40% 42% 43% 21%
Scott 49 87 9 46 50 47 71
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 2 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - -
DK/NA 7 3 4 12 6 8 6
PartOf ANGRY WITH
TeaPartyQ25 StateGovQ26
Sink 11% 42%
Scott 83 49
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - -
DK/NA 4 6
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the
election?
LIKELY VOTERS.............................
CAND CHOICE Q1
Tot Rep Dem Ind AS RS
Made up 85% 87% 91% 75% 83% 86%
Might change 14 12 9 23 16 13
DK/NA 1 1 - 2 1 1
2. (If Sink voter) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Sink or against Scott? (*subgroups not large enough to report)
LIKELY SINK VOTERS................................
WtBrnAgn
Tot *Rep Dem Ind Men Wom *Evnglcl
For Sink 58% 67% 39% 54% 62%
Against Scott 35 27 51 39 30
DK/NA 7 6 10 7 8
3. (If Scott voter) Is your vote for Governor mainly for Scott or against Sink? (*subgroup not large enough to report)
LIKELY SCOTT VOTERS...............................
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep *Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
For Scott 64% 68% 62% 66% 61% 60%
Against Sink 29 25 29 26 33 33
DK/NA 7 7 9 9 6 7
4. Is your opinion of - Alex Sink favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Favorable 39% 13% 76% 33% 38% 41% 22%
Unfavorable 39 64 10 37 39 39 60
Hvn't hrd enough 19 18 13 27 19 18 15
REFUSED 3 5 1 4 4 2 3
PartOf ANGRY WITH
TeaPartyQ25 StateGovQ26
Favorable 13% 36%
Unfavorable 69 51
Hvn't hrd enough 16 12
REFUSED 2 1
5. Is your opinion of - Rick Scott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Favorable 41% 72% 9% 39% 43% 38% 56%
Unfavorable 40 14 71 38 39 41 25
Hvn't hrd enough 17 12 20 20 15 18 16
REFUSED 2 3 1 3 2 3 3
PartOf ANGRY WITH
TeaPartyQ25 StateGovQ26
Favorable 69% 41%
Unfavorable 20 45
Hvn't hrd enough 8 13
REFUSED 2 1
12. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job rebuilding Florida's economy, Alex Sink or Rick Scott?
LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Sink 39% 7% 81% 34% 38% 40% 19%
Scott 48 83 9 48 50 47 71
NO DIFF(VOL) 4 2 5 5 5 3 4
DK/NA 9 7 5 13 8 10 7
13. Have you seen any of Alex Sink's television advertisements for this year's election for Governor?
LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Yes 87% 84% 91% 85% 85% 90% 90%
No 12 14 9 14 14 10 9
DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 - 1
14. (Have seen ads q13) From what you have seen of Alex Sink's television ads, are they more informative or more annoying?
LIKELY VOTERS(SEEN ADS Q13).......................
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Informative 47% 26% 73% 42% 46% 47% 32%
Annoying 46 66 22 51 47 46 61
DK/NA 7 7 5 7 7 7 7
15. Thinking about the Sink campaign's amount of advertising on television, radio, and through mail, do you think Alex Sink's campaign advertising has been excessive, just about right, or not enough?
LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Excessive 17% 20% 7% 22% 15% 20% 24%
About right 51 53 57 47 50 53 57
Not enough 21 14 29 20 24 18 10
DK/NA 10 13 6 10 11 9 9
16. Have you seen any of Rick Scott's television advertisements for this year's election for Governor?
LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Yes 89% 88% 89% 91% 88% 91% 89%
No 10 10 9 8 11 8 11
DK/NA 1 1 1 1 2 1 -
17. (Have seen ads q16) From what you have seen of Rick Scott's television ads, are they more informative or more annoying?
LIKELY VOTERS(SEEN ADS Q16).......................
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Informative 40% 66% 15% 38% 40% 41% 57%
Annoying 54 28 80 56 55 53 37
DK/NA 6 6 6 6 5 6 6
18. Thinking about the Scott campaign's amount of advertising on television, radio, and through mail, do you think Rick Scott's campaign advertising has been excessive, just about right, or not enough?
LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Excessive 38% 20% 56% 41% 40% 36% 29%
About right 43 60 27 40 41 45 55
Not enough 11 12 9 13 11 12 12
DK/NA 8 9 9 7 9 8 5
24. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling hs job as President?
|
LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Approve 40% 6% 83% 38% 37% 44% 16%
Disapprove 56 92 15 56 60 52 81
DK/NA 3 2 2 6 3 4 2
PartOf ANGRY WITH
TeaPartyQ25 FederalGovQ27
Approve 7% 17%
Disapprove 92 82
DK/NA 1 1
|
| 26. I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the state government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry? |
LIKELY VOTERS.....................................
WtBrnAgn
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Evnglcl
Enthusiastic, 2% 3% 2% 1% 2% 3% 3%
Satisfied 32 30 36 34 31 33 30
Dissatisfied 48 50 46 46 50 45 49
Angry 16 14 14 17 16 16 17
DK/NA 2 3 2 2 1 4 1 |
TEXT CREDIT:
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